The National Assembly of South Korea conducted a simulation that yielded highly unexpected results. The findings indicate that South Korea’s current population of approximately 51.7 million could plummet to just 20 million by the end of the 21st century.
According to the simulation, Busan the second largest city in South Korea will become extinct by the year 2413, and the entire South Korean population could disappear by 2750.
But what exactly is happening in South Korea for the simulation to predict such an alarming future?
Currently, South Korea's fertility rate the average number of children born per woman over her lifetime is declining at an alarming rate. In 2024, South Korea recorded the lowest fertility rate in the world, and many experts believe it could be the lowest in recorded history.
Here, it’s crucial to understand an important point: For a country to maintain a stable population, the fertility rate must be at least 2.1 children per woman. If it falls below this threshold, the population will begin to decline significantly year after year.
The first time South Korea’s fertility rate dropped below 2.1 was 40 years ago. Initially, this did not seem alarming, as many countries experienced similar declines in fertility rates before eventually rebounding.
However, what happened in South Korea was quite the opposite the fertility rate continued to decline year after year. By 2013, it had dropped to 1.2 children per woman, a figure so unexpectedly low that it shocked researchers and organizations studying the demographic trends.
But the decline didn’t stop there. By 2019, South Korea's fertility rate had dropped to 0.9 children per woman, making it the first country in the world to record a fertility rate below one child per woman.
This means that for every 10 women, only 9 children are born. At the time of writing this article, South Korea’s fertility rate has dropped even further to 0.68 children per woman. In other words, for every 200 men and women of reproductive age, only 68 children are born, highlighting a severe population decline.
This means that in just three generations, the population will shrink to only 4% of the current generation. Over the past 60 years, South Korea’s fertility rate has plummeted from 6 children per woman to just 0.68, marking an unprecedented demographic collapse.
By 2070, South Korea is expected to lose 30% of its population, and by the end of the century, the total population will shrink to less than half of its current size.
One of the most critical challenges in this scenario is the rapid aging of the population. With a large elderly population and a shrinking workforce, the country will face a severe economic crisis, as fewer young people will be available to support industries, drive innovation, and sustain economic growth.
At the start of the Industrial Revolution, capitalist societies were built on the idea that a large workforce (ages 15-64) is essential for economic growth. These working-age individuals produce, innovate, and support both the elderly and the young, who are economically dependent.
Children, for example, do not contribute to the economy they consume resources without generating income. A healthy economy relies on having a high number of working-age individuals to sustain growth and support dependents, a model that has been followed worldwide .
As of 2024, South Korea has 36 million people in the working-age population and 9 million retirees. This means that for every retired person, there are about four working individuals a relatively stable ratio for economic sustainability.
However, over time, the number of retirees will continue to rise, while the working-age population will shrink due to low birth rates.
South Korea already has one of the highest median ages in the world, rising from 37 to 45 years old. By 2060, it is projected to reach 61 years, which would be unprecedented in human history no society has ever had the majority of its population over 60 years old.
By 2070, more than half of South Korea’s population is expected to be in retirement age, leading to severe economic and social challenges.
Another major factor influencing the declining fertility rate is the urbanization of South Korea. In the 1960s, the country was predominantly rural, with only 28% of the population living in cities. However, within just 40 years, South Korea transformed into one of the most modern and urbanized nations in the world.
Today, 80% of South Korea’s population lives in cities, creating extreme urban congestion due to the country’s mountainous terrain and limited land space. As a result, many citizens have opted to limit childbirth, believing it would benefit the economy and improve living conditions.
Another key factor in declining birth rates is the high participation of women in the workforce. With an average annual workload of 1,900 hours, South Korea has one of the longest working hours among developed nations.
Additionally, social pressures and workplace competition discourage women from taking maternity leave, as it could negatively impact their chances of career advancement and salary increases.
The high cost of living and expensive housing further contribute to low birth rates. South Korea is one of the most expensive countries in the world for raising children, primarily due to its highly competitive education system and societal expectations.
Finally, the question remains: Are there any solutions to this problem?
Of course, there are several solutions the government can implement to control the situation, including:
- Improving working conditions and reducing working hours.
- Increasing flexibility to balance work and personal life.
- Providing greater support for families with children.
- Offering affordable housing to reduce financial burdens.
- Lowering education costs to make raising children more feasible.
Ultimately, the government may turn to opening the doors to immigration, allowing foreign workers to enter South Korea. This approach could help increase the population and ease the burden on the younger Korean generation.